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Post by Stratos on Nov 8, 2004 14:08:03 GMT 10
I am of very firm belief that at least a couple of clubs are doomed to fail.
Considering most clubs are new, the clubs that finish in the bottom tier of the ladder will inevitably see low crowds.
Perth, Adelaide and Newcastle are expected to do ok and they already have a support base.
From the others though, in a market that likes to follow a winner, what will happen to the wooden sthingyer, and runner up to that throne ?
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Post by Sergio on Nov 8, 2004 14:14:11 GMT 10
After seeing the financial models and plans, i dont think any club will "fail" as such. There will be a few though that wont be doing too well off the field if on the field they arent performing. Brisbane IMO will be a very hard nut to crack, and if they arent performing i can see there crowds dropping to around the 5-6000 mark towards the end of the first season,which will look VERY bad at Suncorp. The Kungs of course will be mediocre, but all the others i believe will be faily solid.
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mots
JUNIOR MEMBER
Posts: 55
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Post by mots on Nov 8, 2004 14:15:29 GMT 10
I'm not too sure how Glory are going to go when Tana steps backwards and floats the club on the ASX next year....
The club for me most likely to fail is the Auckland Kungz.
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Post by Stratos on Nov 8, 2004 14:17:50 GMT 10
What's the difference between Tana and someone else funding the club ?
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Post by Phormic on Nov 8, 2004 14:22:46 GMT 10
Well firstly, I hope that no clubs fail. The success of this competition is too important. Secondly, things really do depend on the on field success of the teams. I find it hard to believe that a team would top the table and get poor crowds.
However, the franchises I think that might struggle the most would be the Queensland Lions and Central Coast. I'm not convinced that old Strikers fans will follow the new team, with the bad blood between the two organisations. With Central Coast, despite all the guff about the sport being a "sleeping giant" up there, Spirit's forays up there a few seasons ago were not exactly resounding successes.
As mentioned though, I hope I'm wrong!
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mots
JUNIOR MEMBER
Posts: 55
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Post by mots on Nov 8, 2004 14:30:30 GMT 10
What's the difference between Tana and someone else funding the club ? I'm just not convinced that a public float on the ASX can work for an Australian soccer club....yet.
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Post by Stratos on Nov 8, 2004 14:42:06 GMT 10
You are probably right.
Unless the club can generate a lot of money (like the Super clubs in Europe), it will probably be a failed exercise.
In Australia, you need stupid people with lots of money that have a love for their club.
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Post by Tancred on Nov 8, 2004 14:42:53 GMT 10
I feel that brisbane will struggle. One of their big selling points in their bid was the number of members they have, yet just like Marconi their members do not go to their games at the moment.
I really hope the central coast works, but it's not that hard to see that the locals might not care. I also worry about them as they were the only regional bid. Some strong competition in the bidding process would have been good (read the same for Brisbane as well)
Melbourne should also be interesting. Will the AFL media machine start to chip away at the team? Will enough people go to the games?
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Post by chrisfc on Nov 8, 2004 14:52:28 GMT 10
i think brisbane and the kingz wont last. i also fear for the victory
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Hammer
FULL MEMBER
Jog On
Posts: 124
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Post by Hammer on Nov 8, 2004 16:23:11 GMT 10
Victory, only raised 1.5mil and could only pay the ASA half of the $1m fee - not a great start.
Kungs - Hopefully.
Not sure about Glory floating, Football Clubs are shite investments.
Villa, 5 yrs ago 5 quid a share, dropped to about a quid and now are slowly getting up over the 3 quid mark Birm City 5 yrs ago were worth about 40p a share, now 14pence. Celtic started at 3 quid now they are worth 50p a share.
Even ManU 4 years ago were worth about 4 quid a share and now are at 2.90, for the team that is the leader in it's field (merchandising at least) that is crap.
Once a club floats there is also always that pressure from share holders etc. I do like the idea of owning a share in my club though, probably just the one though.
Cheers
Hammer
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Post by mrtimotae on Nov 9, 2004 6:16:29 GMT 10
I think Melbourne and New Zealand are the clubs that have the most chance of failing. Central Coast may have trouble if the Central Coast don't get behind them.
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Post by bay23=bobstand in disguise on Nov 9, 2004 13:25:49 GMT 10
After having a stint living in SE qld, I think the lions, or whatever they are called, will struggle. Their attitiude towards football, generally, is not great. The kingz will struggle enourmously.
Don't write Melbourne off. The AFL fans inititally might be intrigued with its team, given they will mainly play in the AFL off-season.
James
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Post by SydneyPark on Nov 9, 2004 16:38:09 GMT 10
Central Coast may have trouble if the Central Coast don't get behind them. Maybe they should hand out free blue hair rinse at home games?
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Post by marinermick on Nov 9, 2004 17:20:30 GMT 10
Maybe they should hand out free blue hair rinse at home games? A statement made with complete ignorance given the huge amount of families that have moved here in the last five years and the prospect of many more to come in the next five. It's no longer a retirement village and with this growth in young families football has absolutely boomed here. Those who are predicting the failure of the Mariners know nothing about football here and what's happening on the Coast and have made staements from pure ignorance. Not your fault, but try doing some research so you don't have to make foolish statements. We can't wait to kick the s.hit out of you arrogant Sydney nongs
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Post by MattO on Nov 9, 2004 18:18:53 GMT 10
dito to the last part of the your post mate.
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